- Nov 10, 2003
- 8,719
My post in the other thread got me thinking about what the next generation of consoles will be like. While the average life cycle for a console is 5 years, I'm pretty sure this generation will be longer, at least for the 360 and PS3. If not, we'll be seeing the 360's successor next year, and I'm really not sure if that will happen. I'm almost sure the PS4 won't launch in 2011. Sony is losing money at an incredible rate, not only in the gaming division but all across the company. Microsoft is faring well in these tough economic times, and they now make a profit on each 360 sold. Sony still loses up to 100 dollars per console. Not only that but sales of the PS3 are, frankly, awful. Sony is tauting a 10-year cycle, but they said that for the PSX and PS2, also; they just mean 10 years until they stop supporting the console, not until they release its sucessor. MS has already sunk billions of dollars into the Xbox brand to establish itself, and they've done that admirably. They're going to want to milk profits from the 360 for as long as they can.
The reason that Microsoft released the 360 only 4 years after the original Xbox was that their contract with nVidia to make the Xbox GPUs ran out, they couldn't renew for whatever reason, and they stopped being manufactured, so MS had to rush the 360 to the market. That's also partly why the 360 has been fraught with so many technical issues. Releasing a year ahead of Sony has been a great success for them; they're vastly outselling the PS3 in America and slightly so in Europe, traditionally a safe Sony zone. The PS3 is beating the 360 in Japan, but they're both selling horrendously so it doesn't really make a difference. I'm sure MS will try to launch the 360's successor a year ahead of PS4.
Now, Nintendo basically has free reign to do whatever the hell it wants, or so it would seem. The Wii and DS are both selling better than hotcakes and gangbusters combined. However, when Nintendo releases the follow-up to the Wii, it's going to want to make sure it still captivates the same massive, casual gaming audience. Grandparets buy Wiis for themselves. These aren't people who will be interested in buying the Wii 2 for a graphical upgrade. Either way, Nintendo can't keep up with MS and Sony in terms of funding for powerful technology R & D, regardless of how much money they make off the Wii. Nintendo's profits are still a drop in the bucket compared to MS's. So, Nintendo will almost certainly think of some new way of playing games that could be just as different as the Wiimote was when it came out. And, I think to an extent, MS and Sony will try to follow Nintendo. I don't think that the graphical leap between current and next-gen consoles will be so big; rather, MS and Sony will try and grab a piece of Nintendo's audience. While they'll still cater to gamers like us, for sure, they'll almost certainly both move towards the casual audience in some respect.
Not only that, but I'd be surprised if there is a PSP2. It started off very well, almost beating the DS, but now the DS has gone out of this world and the PSP has heavily stagnated. Software sales are atrocious and UMD is all but dead.
Anyway I've rambled on long enough. Give me your thoughts.
The reason that Microsoft released the 360 only 4 years after the original Xbox was that their contract with nVidia to make the Xbox GPUs ran out, they couldn't renew for whatever reason, and they stopped being manufactured, so MS had to rush the 360 to the market. That's also partly why the 360 has been fraught with so many technical issues. Releasing a year ahead of Sony has been a great success for them; they're vastly outselling the PS3 in America and slightly so in Europe, traditionally a safe Sony zone. The PS3 is beating the 360 in Japan, but they're both selling horrendously so it doesn't really make a difference. I'm sure MS will try to launch the 360's successor a year ahead of PS4.
Now, Nintendo basically has free reign to do whatever the hell it wants, or so it would seem. The Wii and DS are both selling better than hotcakes and gangbusters combined. However, when Nintendo releases the follow-up to the Wii, it's going to want to make sure it still captivates the same massive, casual gaming audience. Grandparets buy Wiis for themselves. These aren't people who will be interested in buying the Wii 2 for a graphical upgrade. Either way, Nintendo can't keep up with MS and Sony in terms of funding for powerful technology R & D, regardless of how much money they make off the Wii. Nintendo's profits are still a drop in the bucket compared to MS's. So, Nintendo will almost certainly think of some new way of playing games that could be just as different as the Wiimote was when it came out. And, I think to an extent, MS and Sony will try to follow Nintendo. I don't think that the graphical leap between current and next-gen consoles will be so big; rather, MS and Sony will try and grab a piece of Nintendo's audience. While they'll still cater to gamers like us, for sure, they'll almost certainly both move towards the casual audience in some respect.
Not only that, but I'd be surprised if there is a PSP2. It started off very well, almost beating the DS, but now the DS has gone out of this world and the PSP has heavily stagnated. Software sales are atrocious and UMD is all but dead.
Anyway I've rambled on long enough. Give me your thoughts.
